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contagionchannels - Two-Stage Detection and Attribution of Cross-Border Financial Contagion Channels

Implementation of a two-stage framework for the joint detection-and-attribution of cross-border financial contagion. Stage one detects directional information flows between equity markets via Wavelet-Quantile Transfer Entropy, combining maximal-overlap discrete wavelet decomposition (Percival and Walden, 2000, ISBN:9780521685085) with the transfer-entropy estimator of Schreiber (2000) <doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.85.461> and quantile conditioning following Han, Linton, Oka and Whang (2016) <doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.03.001>. Stage two attributes each significant directional link to one of five mutually exclusive transmission channels (Trade, Financial, Geopolitical, Behavioural, Monetary Policy) through a multi-method structural identification architecture combining instrumental-variables two-stage least squares with channel-specific external instruments (Stock and Watson, 2018) <doi:10.1111/ecoj.12593>, LASSO-based instrument selection (Belloni, Chernozhukov and Hansen, 2014) <doi:10.1093/restud/rdt044>, local projections (Jorda, 2005) <doi:10.1257/0002828053828518>, heteroskedasticity-based identification (Rigobon, 2003) <doi:10.1162/003465303772815727>, and the Cinelli-Hazlett (2020) <doi:10.1111/rssb.12348> robustness-value sensitivity bound. Bundled datasets and replication scripts reproduce the headline findings of Bhandari, Parida and Sahu (2026) <doi:10.48550/arXiv.2604.26546>; the package is general-purpose and accommodates user-supplied returns and channel proxies.

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4.48 score 36 downloads

contagionchannels - Two-Stage Detection and Attribution of Cross-Border Financial Contagion Channels

Implementation of a two-stage framework for the joint detection-and-attribution of cross-border financial contagion. Stage one detects directional information flows between equity markets via Wavelet-Quantile Transfer Entropy, combining maximal-overlap discrete wavelet decomposition (Percival and Walden, 2000, ISBN:9780521685085) with the transfer-entropy estimator of Schreiber (2000) <doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.85.461> and quantile conditioning following Han, Linton, Oka and Whang (2016) <doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.03.001>. Stage two attributes each significant directional link to one of five mutually exclusive transmission channels (Trade, Financial, Geopolitical, Behavioural, Monetary Policy) through a multi-method structural identification architecture combining instrumental-variables two-stage least squares with channel-specific external instruments (Stock and Watson, 2018) <doi:10.1111/ecoj.12593>, LASSO-based instrument selection (Belloni, Chernozhukov and Hansen, 2014) <doi:10.1093/restud/rdt044>, local projections (Jorda, 2005) <doi:10.1257/0002828053828518>, heteroskedasticity-based identification (Rigobon, 2003) <doi:10.1162/003465303772815727>, and the Cinelli-Hazlett (2020) <doi:10.1111/rssb.12348> robustness-value sensitivity bound. Bundled datasets and replication scripts reproduce the headline findings of Bhandari, Parida and Sahu (2026) <doi:10.48550/arXiv.2604.26546>; the package is general-purpose and accommodates user-supplied returns and channel proxies.

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3.18 score

sochcontagion - Scale-Ordered Contagion: Spectral Theory and Tests of Heterogeneous Information Adaptation

A spectral theory of financial contagion under heterogeneous information adaptation, with the estimators and falsifiable tests it implies. Modelling both the source and the receiving market as exponential information filters yields a bi-exponential transmission response whose power spectrum is the product of two Lorentzians; the slower market supplies the binding spectral corner. Projected onto a maximal-overlap discrete wavelet basis (Percival and Walden, 2000, ISBN:9780521685085) this gives a closed-form transfer-entropy-by-scale profile and three predictions (Scale-Ordered Contagion): scale ordering by adaptation speed, shape symmetry across direction, and magnitude asymmetry. The package provides the closed-form spectrum and scale power, a profile-matching estimator that recovers adaptation rates and endogenises the fast/slow classification, the wavelet-quantile directional-gain measure built from the transfer-entropy estimator of Schreiber (2000) <doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.85.461> with quantile conditioning (Koenker and Bassett, 1978) <doi:10.2307/1913643> and the quantile goodness-of-fit of Koenker and Machado (1999) <doi:10.1080/01621459.1999.10473882>, and the three tests with phase-randomised surrogate (Theiler, Eubank, Longtin, Galdrikian and Farmer, 1992) <doi:10.1016/0167-2789(92)90102-S> and stationary block-bootstrap (Politis and Romano, 1994) <doi:10.1080/01621459.1994.10476870> nulls. Bundled G20 equity returns and replication scripts reproduce the headline results; the package is general-purpose and accommodates user-supplied returns.

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3.00 score